Posted March 11, 2007
Last year I let Ed take a shot alone at forecasting the majors, and he thinks his picks were pretty bad. But he wasn’t that far off; had the New York Mets and Chicago White Sox not experienced pitching meltdowns—the White Sox after the All-Star break, the Mets in the NLCS—his prognostications might have been right on. But over 162 games and then some, a major league season is full of surprises, meltdowns and luck, both good and bad. This year I join Ed in our “fearless” predictions of the coming 2007 campaign. All things being equal, here’s what we’re expecting. Let us know if you think we’re right on. Or crazy. —Eric
NL East: Eric's picks
NL East: Ed's rebuttal
NL Central: Ed's picks
NL Central: Eric's rebuttal
NL West: Eric's picks
NL West: Ed's rebuttal
AL East: Ed's picks
AL East: Eric's rebuttal
AL Central: Eric's picks
AL Central: Ed's rebuttal
AL West: Ed's picks
AL West: Eric's rebuttal
Postseason: Ed's picks
Postseason: Eric's picks
Last things first: Forget about the Washington Nationals. They’ve lost their best hitter (Alfonso Soriano), their best starting pitcher (Ramon Ortiz) and their long-time franchise favorite (Jose Vidro). First baseman Norm Johnson won’t be available until at least May, leaving former rookie Ryan Zimmerman as their only legitimate hitting threat. And their rotation returns with just one guy (Mike O’Connor) with over 100 innings pitched last year, and he, too, won’t be back until after Opening Day. There’s no chance for this downward spiral of a team. The Nats’ state of affairs can be best summed up in two words: Jack Kevorkian.
As for the actual contenders in this division, the default choice would seem to lie with the New York Mets, easily the NL’s best in 2006—until the NLCS. The crippled rotation, the ultimate culprit in the Mets’ postseason downfall, hasn’t healed six months later. Pedro Martinez is out, perhaps for the whole year. Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez is still fighting injuries. That leaves 41-year old Tom Glavine as the only reliable, proven guy on the hill, followed by the element of the unknown: Second-year hurler John Maine and desperate-to-get-a-job types Oliver Perez and Chan Ho Park. There’s little relief from a bullpen that has lost Chad Bradford to free agency and Guillermo Mota to a 50-game steroid suspension to start the year. No doubt, the Mets can hit, from Jose Reyes and David Wright to the two Carlos (Beltran and Delgado), but pitching gets you to the top. The Mets are vulnerable.
So is anyone in the East qualified to top the Mets?
The Florida Marlins, after their stunning rise on a shoestring last year, are one year more experienced but even younger now after losing or shipping out four players past the age of 30, yet they’re still quite green and lack both a proven closer and award-winning leadership of the fired Joe Girardi. The Atlanta Braves are in transition (on the field and off it, with ownership changing hands), and though still competitive, they’re hardly superior as in the past.
That leaves us with the Philadelphia Phillies, who possess the talent, balance and confidence to knock off the Mets. And they’ll do it. The Phillies’ hitting is powder-keg dangerous with returning NL MVP Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. They’ve beefed up their rotation with the addition of Freddy Garcia and Adam Eaton; Cole Hamels, who was exceptional after the All-Star break, is among the more underrated of last year’s voluminous rookie class. If their average bullpen holds firm, the Phillies should collect.
Sorry, Mr. Gouldsberry, buy my take on the NL East is a little bit different. I agree that the Washington Nationals are a joke. They’re a motley crew of cast-offs, rookies who are being rushed, no-names and hobbling vets. Their pitching staff will be featuring quite possibly the worst stuff in all of baseball in 2007. First baseman Nick Johnson and shortstop Christian Guzman are ailing, Dmitri Young and Brandon Clausen are being recycled and the Nats will no doubt remind fans of the awful Washington Senator teams of the 1960s and 1970s.
The Florida Marlins will miss former manager Joe Girardi more than they know, but they may still surprise a lot of people with their young, inexperienced crew of enthusiastic, motivated kids. New skipper Fredi Gonzalez will have to play father figure and babysitter simultaneously, but with a decent pitching staff featuring Dontrelle Willis, Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez and promising, improving prospects like left fielder Jeremy Hermida, Florida will spoil some other teams’ chances and could make a run.
The Atlanta Braves are in big trouble—they’re in the middle of a long rebuilding phase and their minor league system isn’t going to produce any major stars any time soon. Chipper Jones will be thinking of jumping ship halfway through the season and will probably go to a contender in the second half.
That leaves the two teams that will be vying for the NL East title: The New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies. Right now, the Phillies are the team du jour, because of their depth and array of hopeful young studs. They’re already said to be showing a little attitude and swagger. The Phillies haven’t been in the playoffs since 1993, and I don’t think that they should be dusting off their shelves to make room for any trophies just yet. These guys—from Ryan Howard to Chase “Mr. Hustle ” Utley and new pitching additions Freddy Garcia and Adam Eaton—have yet to prove that they can consistently play in the clutch or at a high level. This is a team that everyone is expecting to win—and that can cause problems with a team this young. If Manager Charlie Manuel doesn’t produce early on, the press in Philly will be all over him, which could cause drama and problems for the Phillies. I have them finishing second, possibly getting into the postseason as a wild card entry.
The Mets are weak when it comes to starting pitching, no one can disagree there. But, this team is going to score so many runs with Wright, Floyd, Delgado and Paul La Duca that it’s not going to matter. I see this team winning a lot of 6-5 and 8-7 games. The Amazins' pitching isn’t going to have to be that good for them to win this division. One of their young, unproven starting pitchers – most likely John Maine, Mike Pelfrey and/or Phil Humber—will step up fill out the staff. Sorry Eric—it’s the Mets again in the NL East, in my opinion. The Phils will play well, but second place is their destiny in 2007.
The NL Central is a mish mash of teams who’ve improved themselves, lost players or made only a few offseason changes. Of all the divisions in baseball this year, it may be the one with the most question marks. Can certain players catch on with their new teams? Will others be able to rebound from injuries they experienced in 2006? Will anyone be there in mid-October? Will Tony LaRussa smile? Who will get better and who will continue to spiral downward? Hopefully I can answer some of those burning questions here.
Let’s start with the one team you can bet won’t be in the postseason: The Pittsburgh Pirates. If Roberto Clemente or Willie Stargell could see this group, I’m sure they’d be rolling over in their graves. The Bucs didn’t spend any bucks this offseason, and the result is going to be dismal. Manager Jim Tracy is a great field general, but even he won’t be able to win with these guys. The pitching staff is promising, with Ian Snell, Zach Duke and Paul Maholm. And then there’s last season’s NL batting champ Freddy Sanchez and Jason Bay, who can both hit. Chris Duffy will need to get on base more as the leadoff man if this team is to succeed at all, which they won’t be able to on any kind of consistent level over a 162-game season.
There are three other teams—the Cincinnati Reds, Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers—that could possibly do well, but only if there is a complete convergence of the universe.
The Reds have a new general manager, Wayne Krivsky, who wasn’t able to do much during the offseason. The team has a few bright spots, but there are just two many holes in this squad to be in contention. The Redlegs’ pitching is better than its been in several years. Bronson Arroyo, Eric Milton (who is healthy again) and Aaron Harang all have good stuff and will only get better. Manager Jerry Narron will juggle a line-up of seasoned vets and young kids, while moving Ken Griffey Jr. (.252, 27 HR, 72 RBI in only 109 games) from center to right field, where Ryan Freel will play. Adam Dunn will be moving from first base to left field, which will help his hitting, because he never liked playing first in the first place. Jeff Conine and Scott Hatteberg will share duties there. The Reds may show moments of brilliance throughout the year, but won’t be able to maintain any semblance of effectiveness over the long haul.
The Astros are getting about as much respect as Pluto in 2007, and for good reason. The big off-season question from day one has been Roger Clemens or not Roger Clemens. It won’t matter either way. The Astros’ pitching staff isn’t bad with Roy Oswalt and Jason Jennings, but after that it’s full of major question marks. Starters Woody Williams (who is rumored to be finished); Wandy Rodriguez and unproven Chris Sampson will have to step up if this team hopes to contend, but all of them are probably a long shot. Houston’s offense is even more iffy—the addition of Carlos Lee will undoubtedly help, and the fact that Lance Berkman (who hit.315 in 152 games while playing hurt) will be big plusses. But, there are just too many weak stars on this team; third baseman Morgan Ensberg and outfielder Luke Scott are inept at the plate and haven’t figured out enough ways to get on base. The Astros will show moments of brightness but will get sucked up into a black hole created by hitting and spotty pitching.
The Brewers, owned by the dynamic Mark Attanasio, are a team on the rise, though they’re still several years away from becoming a real contender. Last season’s sub-.500 performance was caused by a ton of injuries and the inexperience of some young players. Manager Ned Yost is being patient—he really has no choice—and this team will greatly improve as the 2007 season progresses. The first move Yost is making involves moving Bill Hall from shortstop to center field, so that potential phenom J.J. Hardy can play full-time at short. If third baseman Corey Koskie recovers from post-concussion syndrome, and if first baseman Prince Fielder (.271, 18 HR, 81 RBI) can continue to show power for average, this team could be a problem for the rest of the NL. If Hardy is healthy after an ankle injury, he could soar. The Brew Crew’s pitching staff shows promise, with the addition of Jeff Suppan to go along with Ben Sheets.
That leaves the two teams I believe will contend for the NL Central title in 2007: The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals. It’s been way too long since the Cubbies won, and just last year for the Cards, but both of these teams still have a load of what-if’s on their rosters. One thing they do have is seasoned, veteran managers—Lou Pinella for Chi-town and Tony LaRussa for St. Louie. If either team has the horses to get into the playoffs, these two experienced bench jockeys can surely get them there.
The Chicago Cubs spent $300 million during the off-season to pick up a plethora of big free agent names, including the most coveted of the bunch, Alfonso Soriano. They also picked up starting pitchers Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis, as well as solid hitters Cliff Floyd and Mark DeRosa. One of their best moves was in retaining Aramis Ramirez, probably the best overall third baseman in the NL. A pitching staff led by Carlos Zambrano and a bunch of wannabes means this team is going to have to score a ton of runs to win consistently. The biggest gaps in this squad’s presentation revolve around the physical conditions of chronically injured pitchers Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. This team spent so much money on players that they’re now selling advertising along the outfield wall at Wrigley Field. If they don’t win early and often, this one could turn into a real drama in the Windy City. Will the curse of the goat continue to haunt the Cubbies? Or will the rest of the division be eating ivy by the time it’s all over? No matter what happens, it’ll be fun to watch.
The Cardinals won the World Series last year with the worst record of any champion in the history of the game. Can St. Louis catch the magic again in 2007, or will they come down to earth and wither under the big arch in the heat of a Missouri summer? All of the major players are back on offense, including Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, David Eckstein, Yadier Molina and promising young outfielder Chris Duncan (22 homers in just 90 games). One question here is: Will Scott Rolen play nice with the enigmatic LaRussa this season? If so, this team will be tough to out-hit. Pitching could be another matter altogether, however. Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver and Jason Marquis are all gone. Adam Wainwright, who moves from the bullpen into the starting rotation, and Anthony Reyes will have to take up the slack if this team wants to finish on top. Another big what-if involves Mark Mulder, who won’t be back until at least July. The Cardinals are walking a fine line and playing with shadows, but they have just enough talent and experience to get it done.
I’m picking St. Louis to win the NL Central, with the Cubs finishing a close second. I would be surprised if either team wins 95 games. The Brewers will finish third, the Reds will show promise early and then fade and the rest of the division will finish under .500.
Ed, you’re playing it safe. Everyone expects the St. Louis Cardinals to win the division again, because they finished October on top of the world. Everyone expects the Cubs to compete because they’ve spent a third of a billion dollars on new arrivals. The fact is, this division is a toss-up. Or a mess. Not one of the teams that call the NL Central home look dominant, not even the Cardinals. But a good many of the teams have the ability to go above average, so this sextet may not be a total loss.
Yes, the Cardinals are reigning champs, but remember, they won just 83 games and sweated out the division by a single game before they got hot in the postseason. The Cardinals are ripe for the taking; after sterling ace Chris Carpenter, their rotation has been shredded by the departure of supporting players-turned-free agents and the extended recuperation of Mark Mulder. Granted, the Cardinals’ hitters were not at 100% last season, so they’re bound to improve, but unless the untried components of the new rotation gel quickly, the Cardinals will not repeat.
So I’m giving the NL Central to the Houston Astros. Picking up Carlos Lee emboldens an offense that has inexplicably struggled in a cozy ballpark, and the everyday presence of Luke Scott (who hit .337 with ten homers and 37 RBIs in 65 games in 2006) will bring further support to more established hitters like Lance Berkman and Morgan Ensberg. On the mound, pitcher Jason Jennings—who refused to talk extension with the Rockies likely out of fear that he’d keep throwing one mile high in Denver—joins Roy Oswalt to form a potentially terrific 1-2 combo. And don’t forget, there’s always the tease that is Roger Clemens possibly returning from his latest retirement to rejoin the Astros.
With the addition of former Cardinal Jeff Suppan, the Milwaukee Brewers may very well possess one of baseball’s best rotations, and if the team’s abundant young hitting talent improves with more patience at the plate and less mistakes on defense, the Brewers may just be ready to pull a big surprise.
The Chicago Cubs may be better—for that third of a billion bucks in guaranteed wages, they’d better be—but there’s too many ifs with this team, especially in relation to how marquee pick-up Alfonso Soriano handles the Wrigley winds in the outfield. The addition to the staff of Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis made plenty of noise, but we’re talking two guys who combined to go 29-29 with a 5.19 ERA last year. Lou Piniella takes over at manager, but he replaces a guy (Dusty Baker) who wasn’t all that bad, and Piniella’s last gig in Tampa ended with him unable to make a dent in the Devil Rays (even though he did manage a few in the dugout walls after numerous tirades).
There’s no argument to be had with Ed regarding the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates. The Reds have points of virtue here and there, but many holes in between—and they did nothing to improve themselves over the winter. The Pittsburgh Pirates played well late last year, but they, too, seemed to regress in the offseason—especially when they inexplicably traded away closer Mike Gonzalez, who was 24-for-24 in save opportunities. Such a shame that Buc fans have to endure this franchise within the confines of such a beautiful ballpark.
Coming from a San Francisco Giant fan, these are the saddest of words: The Los Angeles Dodgers will win the West. The Dodgers are far from dominant, but the rest of the division simply isn’t at their level. Adding Jason Schmidt and Randy Wolf has bolstered the rotation into one of the league’s more complete, and the addition of Juan Pierre not only gives the Dodgers more excitement at the top of the order, but provides some much-needed, sound defense in the outfield as well. Luis Gonzalez isn’t the same player he was back in the day in Arizona, but he should at least warm over a Dodger clubhouse made ice cold over the years by the likes of Jeff Kent, Milton Bradley and J.D. Drew—who incidentally is gone, along with his injury bug. In a division that’s still below average, the Dodgers should survive his absence.
There are worthy challengers to the Dodgers in the West, but only if everything rolls right. The most intriguing story comes from Phoenix, where Randy Johnson has returned to the Arizona Diamondbacks—joining a rotation that includes reigning Cy Young winner Brandon Webb and inning eaters Livan Hernandez and former Brewer Doug Davis. Right there you have as much as 900 potential frames of workhorse pitching that will take pressure off a lackluster bullpen. But the real question mark for the Diamondbacks is how fast the cache of highly touted, young hitting talent will blossom. If Carlos Quentin, Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson and rookie outfielder Chris Young quickly mature, then the Diamondbacks could pull off the upset over Los Angeles.
The two-time defending NL West titlist San Diego Padres lost quite a bit of its hitting muscle (Dave Roberts, Mike Piazza, Josh Barfield); bringing an aging Greg Maddux into the pitching fold isn’t enough to make it up. The Padres will be competitive, but they will ultimately not succeed.
The Giants added Barry Zito and have the making of a formidable rotation, but the closer role is a big question mark and the rest of the bullpen is flat. And besides, what kind of run support will this staff get? Barry Bonds is closing in on 43, is highly susceptible to injury, and alone not just in the clubhouse (where his training stooges are now banned) but also on the field, protected by virtually no one to scare opponents. Maybe Bonds will break the home run mark, but all while the Giants lose another 90 games.
Finally, the Colorado Rockies. (Sigh.) The door to future momentum was slammed shut when Jason Jennings—the only starting pitcher in club history to produce an ERA below 4.00, let alone 5.00—was traded to the Astros. The Rockies then tried to deal Todd Helton to Boston, but that fell through—and now Helton feels unwanted and unhappy. This is not the way to treat your franchise player. Yes, there are rising hitting stars in Matt Holliday and Garrett Atkins, but the mile-high insanity in Denver always produces young bats with heady numbers. It’s another losing year of exhausted pitchers and 12-10 slugfests in Colorado, humidor or not.
Coming from an avid San Francisco Giant fan, it had to be tough for my cohort Eric to pick the Los Angeles Dodgers he despises so vehemently. With the talent that general manager Ned Colletti has assembled, there’s really no reason to believe that this team won’t be able to win the West. Although the addition of Juan Pierre may be questioned down the line, no one can argue that adding Jason Schmidt and Randy Wolf to an already strong starting rotation was a shrewd move. Combine old-schoolers like Jeff Kent, Luis Gonzalez and Nomar Garciaparra with new names like James Loney, Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley and Andy LaRoche, and you have a mixture that will be volatile for the rest of the West. Whenever the Blue Crew has won throughout the years (and it’s been a long time), it’s pitching that has gotten them there. Dem Bums will return to the playoffs in 2007, and who knows what happens then.
The rest of the NL West is a real enigmatic bunch. San Diego, Arizona and San Francisco are all capable of capturing team chemistry in a bottle and making a run at the title. The San Diego Padres are young and deep, with veterans in some of the right places. The Arizona Diamondbacks are inexperienced but game. And the Giants are old, creaky and controversial, but may still have enough gas in the tank to excel.
San Diego has won the West the last two years, but now the landscape has changed considerably. Management realized a couple of seasons ago that they can’t field a power-hitting team for the simple reason that they play in a cavernous ballpark more suited for singles and doubles. With the hustling Giles brothers, Marcus and Brian, reunited on the roster, and the promise of youngsters like new third baseman Kevin Kouzamanoff, the Pads look like a team that could be formidable if jelled. They lost some key veterans, but by acquiring the master himself, Greg Maddux, they could be a contender once again.
The Diamondbacks are one of the more interesting squads in the majors this year and will either be really bad or surprise everybody but Peter Gammons. They’ll have the pitching with Cy Younger Brandon Webb and reunited prodigal son and future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson. Their young studs—guys like Carlos Quentin, Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson and Chris Young—all have the potential to really make an impact and a huge difference in Arizona’s future and beyond. Second baseman Orlando Hudson has a great glove and a refreshingly wonderful attitude that can’t help but rub off on this team. Mark my words—the D-Bax could be the Detroit Tigers of 2007.
The San Francisco Giants are older than any team in baseball and their minor league system is producing about as much as Ford Motors, but getting Barry Zito could make all the difference in the world for the Boys by the Bay. The big questions are who will save the games Zito, Noah Lowry and Matt Cain can’t finish, and whether or not Barry Bonds can contribute at least two-thirds of the time. That’s how often they’ll need him if they hope to compete.
The Colorado Rockies will bring up the rear with few stars and little chance of improving enough to make any significant impact. The other teams in the West will be happy to see the Rockies in the opposing dugout, because they are untested, inexperienced and ready for the slaughter. Sure there will be a few bright spots—Matt Holliday is a genuine star and so is Garrett Atkins. And the team has some guys who are a few years away from being all-stars too—kids like third base phenom Ian Stewart, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and infielder Jeff Baker—but they need more time and the opportunity to fail without consequences. Lucky for them, failure should be the theme this year for the Rockies. The end result will be a sub-.500 year for the Mountain Boys. There will be a ton of high scoring in Colorado this year, but mostly by the other team.
That’s the way I see it. The Dodgers will win it, although it could be close. San Diego and Arizona have a legitimate shot at the wild dard, while the Giants will need a series of miracles. The Rockies will be done by June.
The AL East has been a two-horse race for the past decade, with the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox taking turns trading titles for wild card entries. Last year, the Toronto Blue Jays passed the Bosox for the second spot, but only because Boston had more injuries than a geriatric softball team of sixtysomethings playing in the Leisure Village Senior League. Once again, it figures to be the Big Apple vs. Beantown playing Abbott & Costello in the AL East, with the only question being “Who will be on first?” when it’s all said and done.
My pick to win it this season is the Yankees. Instead of turning their offseason into another annual garage sale, the Bronx Bombers played it smart and held their cards close to their chest during the winter. General manager Pat Cashman has finally been allowed to run this team without Georgy Porgy getting in his way. The franchise has started to concentrate on building from within and the two most immediate examples of this are promising young pitchers Phil Hughes and Russ Ohlendorf. Neither of these future phenoms may be ready to contribute in 2007, but at least they represent baby steps in the right direction. The Yankees unloaded all-stars of the past Gary Sheffield and Randy Johnson while picking up solid team-oriented guys like Andy Pettitte and Doug Mientkiewcz. The pitching staff is one of the reasons I’m picking NYC, led by Chien-Ming Wang and the always reliable Mike Mussina. Offensively, it’s hard to believe that guys like Johnny Damon, Alex Rodriguez and Jason Giambi could get better, but they can. The Yankees will live up to the hype and win the division, primarily because the circus has moved out of town.
The Red Sox have a roster packed with talent. Guys like David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Manny Ramirez are savvy everyday performers that make up the core of a solid squad. By raiding the Dodgers and picking up fragile J.D. Drew and versatile Julio Lugo during the off-season, the Red Hose have made themselves deeper and stronger. Throw in promising rookie second baseman Dustin Pedroia and the Japanese acquisition of the year Daisuke Matsuzaka, and you have a team that will rock Fenway Park and put a smile on Manager Terry Francona’s face. The only problem I can see here is pitching depth. Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett did fairly well in 2006, but I have to believe they won’t be able to keep it up and will falter by midseason. Schilling is old and rickety and Beckett is over and done. The biggest hole, however, is in the Bosox bullpen. With last year’s closer Jonathan Papelbon in the starting rotation, Boston is going with Joel Pineiro (8-13, 6.36) as their closer, which could be an enormous mistake. In many other divisions (like the AL West), the Red Sox would dominate, but in this one they’re only second best.
The Blue Jays ended up in second place last year. The last time they were able to finish that high was when they won the World Series in 1993. To make any kind of run this year, they’re going to need better pitching, defense and situational hitting. Lyle Overbay, Troy Glaus and Alex Rios make up a strong offensive nucleus, and the best thing this team did during the offseason was retaining Vernon Wells, a star today and for many years to come. Losing pitcher Ted Lilly will hurt. Trying to replace him with John Thomson is like believing that Jay Leno could have ever possibly made us forget about Johnny Carson. Roy Halladay is one of the best in the game, and A.J. Burnett is no slouch either, but the Blue Jays don’t have enough live arms to make it to the postseason. They’re an improving bunch, however, and we may be hearing Oh, Canada being sung in the playoffs sooner than you think—just not this season.
Britney Spears has a better chance of getting through rehab than the Baltimore Orioles do of getting through 2007 without a series of disasters. This entire team needs an intervention, starting with their bullpen (5.27 ERA in 2006, ranked 13th in the AL). The O’s signed a plethora of arms in hopes of taking up the slack—cast-offs like Danys Baez, Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford—which will only cause the wounds created by Baltimore’s starting staff to bleed even more. If it weren’t for the quality players that the Orioles were able to steal from the Oakland A’s over the last several years—namely Miguel Tejada and C Ramon Hernandez, they’d be even worse than they are now. It doesn't matter which guy with the double z's is running the ship—Sam Perlozzo or Leo Mazzone—they’ll be a bunch of triple z's emanating from snoozing fans at Camden Yards this year.
The Tampa Bay Devil Rays should be hoping that global warming would hurry up and flood their ball park—washing away the embarrassing season that’s coming their way in 2007. The team has some promising talent—players like Akinon Iwamura, Delmon Young, B.J. Upton and Ben Zobrist are all up-and-comers. But, that’s not going to be enough to catapult the Rays out of the MLB’s little leagues. Pitcher Scott Kazmir pitched amazingly well with little support last year, but the rest of the starting staff all feature ERAs between 5.00 and 8.00. If Al Gore is right, Tampa Bay isn’t long for this planet. And that may not be such a disaster.
So, it’s the Yanks, Bosox, Jays and then who cares in the AL East. It will be a fun year featuring a century-old, super intense rivalry—complete with gyro balls, green monsters, witty Boston Herald and New York Times headlines and enough hand wringing and rolling eyes to keep us on the edge of our seats all season long.
A lot of folks believe that the Boston Red Sox’ pricey purchase of Daisuke Matsuzaka—they paid $50 million just for the privilege—will tip the balance in their favor over the . Even if Dice-K, as he’s becoming better known here in the States, turns out to be Walter Johnson reincarnated, it just won’t be enough for a Red Sox outfit still inferior to a Yankee roster that continues to boast an All-Star at virtually every position.New York Yankees
The Yankees are too elephantine not to lose the AL East over the 162-game haul, even after trimming some of the All-Star fat with the offseason exits of the declining Randy Johnson and Gary Sheffield. What’s left is still plenty: Derek Jeter, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi and Alex Rodriguez, whose .290, 35-homer, 121-RBI campaign a year ago was widely dismissed as disappointing due to several highly celebrated slumps. (Let’s not forget relative no-namer Robinson Cano, who hit .342.) The pitching staff has been the subject of much critiquing, with its rotation depth and closer Mariano Rivera’s immortality both questioned. But when you have Mike Mussina, Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and Japanese import Kei Igawa written in as starters, you don’t need to worry about the absence of Johnson or the walking disaster known as Carl Pavano. And many believe that if Roger Clemens comes back out of re-re-retirement, it’s the Yankees he’ll return to.
The Red Sox are simply not well rounded at this juncture. David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez make for a remarkable power tandem, but the rest of this roster is full of gambles. New arrival J.D. Drew has a history of injuries. The middle infield is manned by an untried rookie Dustin Pedroia and Julio Lugo, a shortstop with defensive issues on the field and domestic issues off it. Jonathon Papelbon, the young premier closer of last year, is being moved to the rotation, itself shaky (even with Dice-K) given that Curt Schilling is aging and Josh Becket is injury-prone. The question is not whether the Red Sox will win the AL East—they won’t—but whether they’ll be good enough to snag the wild card. Hope always springs eternal every April for Red Sox fans, but frustration reigns by October. This year will be no exception.
The Toronto Blue Jays spent a lot of money last year trying to butt in on the Yankees and Red Sox, and for their troubles they managed to knock Boston out of second place by a mere game. At least they tried, unlike another AL East team that resides in Maryland. Their biggest offseason signing was not one of addition but of retention, bringing back All-Star outfielder Vernon Wells. Besides that, the Jays’ only other major acquisition was Frank Thomas, who enjoyed a renaissance season last year but can still break down at any time. Worse, the Jays lost numerous supporting components to last year’s success (Ted Lilly, Justin Speier, Frank Catalanotto) through free agency, so it begs to ask if the Jays made an actual advance over the winter. The answer appears to be no. But the Jays are trying.
Not trying are the Baltimore Orioles, the aforementioned team in Maryland. They use to try, back in the day some ten years ago, but that’s when they owned a monopoly on new ballpark revenue. Now practically everyone else has their own Camden Yards and, after years of being caught up to, it seems as if owner Peter Angelos has thrown in the towel and has put the franchise on auto pilot. The Orioles have a lot of pop on offense, but in this day and age, hitting is water and pitching is oil—and the Orioles lack the latter precious commodity. Erik Bedard arrived last season and starts the year as the team’s pitching ace, but Baltimore needs four Bedards to make any run at the top. The Orioles have suffered nine straight losing seasons, the thinning fan base is growing mutinous, and Angelos appears not to care.
With Delmon Young, B.J. Upton and Scott Kazmir, there’s quite a youth movement afoot in Tampa Bay. It’s too bad there’s no veteran movement. Outfielder Carl Crawford is the Devil Rays’ only legitimate All-Star, yet don’t be surprised to see him in another uniform before the year is out. Beyond that, the Rays are the usual fiasco. Remember, this is a team that won three games on the road—three—after June 30 last season. Not even management has WalMart money, like the Kansas City Royals at least do. The Devil Rays begin their tenth major league season having never come close to the .500 mark, and there’s zilch chance it will happen anytime soon.
I look at the Detroit Tigers in 2007 the same way a lot of us—especially Ed—looked at the Chicago White Sox last year: They look too good not to miss a beat. Or will they? Could their starting rotation collapse like Chicago’s did? Could injuries hit here and there? Could Jim Leyland make like Ozzie Guillen and dress down a columnist as a ‘f--k--g f-g’? (Remember, Guillen is not homophobic; he went to a Madonna concert last year.)
In stark contrast to his last post-pennant year in 1998 with the Marlins, Leyland returns in 2007 with a Tiger team virtually intact from the year before—and then some. They’ve added Gary Sheffield. They also have back Mike Maroth, a workhorse pitcher who was largely AWOL to injury last year. Yes, bad things can happen to the Tigers and the magic of 2006 can evaporate. Pitchers can forget how to pitch. Sheffield and Magglio Ordonez can break down again. Kenny Rogers can return to videographer abuse. But that’s all worse case scenario. Again, all things being equal, it’s hard to bet against the Tigers winning the AL Central.
It took me a great deal of discipline to keep from giving the Cleveland Indians this division. On paper, the Indians are hot. But don’t be seduced by their hitting stats, impressive as they are. The Tribe was 80-82 for a reason. Several, actually: Broken starting pitching beyond C.C. Sabathia and Jake Westbrook; a horrible bullpen topped by a disaster at the closer spot (remember the Fausto Carmona nightmare?); and a complete inability by Indian catchers to throw anyone out. The Indians were underachievers in 2006 given what was expected of them, but the prognosticators were a year ahead of things. The bullpen is stronger with the addition of a real closer in Joe Borowski. The rotation looks more rounded. And as if the Indians don’t need more good young hitters, they have them anyway in Ryan Garko, Andy Marte and Josh Barfield, traded from the Padres to improve a defensively shaky infield. The Indians are legitimate contenders and, yes, green—but that’s what people thought of the Tigers last year.
If you judged the 2006 Minnesota Twins solely by looking at the honors, you would have thought these guys were the 1927 Yankees. They had the AL’s MVP (Justin Morneau), Cy Young winner (Johan Santana), batting champ (Joe Mauer), most efficient closer (Joe Nathan) and they would have had the AL Rookie of the Year award had Francisco Liriano not shut down in mid-summer. It’s hard to believe these guys can all gang up to repeat—actually, it’s already impossible with Liriano out of commission until 2008—but the Twins are loaded with hot young talent here, there and everywhere. Problem is, much of that talent is so young—particularly with the rotation, which will consist of Santana and a bunch of guys that Twin fans will have to cross their fingers over—that the experience factor will overwhelm the Twins and keep them from repeating as AL Central champs.
Despite an increase in firepower, the White Sox could not return to the postseason last year. That will happen when your team ERA rises by a full run. It’s troubling enough that the Sox’ rotation virtually collapsed late in 2006, but they’ve given up on one of their sturdier throwers (Freddy Garcia, traded to the Phillies) and made no other major moves anywhere on an aging roster, where six of their projected everyday players will be 30 or older on Opening Day. In a highly competitive division where everyone else has either improved or gotten more experienced, this is not a good sign for the South Siders.
Kansas City Royal fans may not be fawning over Gil Meche, the pitcher who somehow commanded $55 million over five years, but they’re wetting their pants over third base prospect Alex Gordon, a superstar lying in wait who may be ready for the majors. But then again, these are the Royals, where anyone is welcomed to the big league level. Gordon may make a difference one day, but that may not be until 2010 as his pro experience has consisted of just one season at double-A. So wet dreams of the Royals winning it all behind Gordon will have to concede to the reality that there’s little talent on a poor boy’s franchise situated in, arguably, baseball’s toughest division.
The AL Central will be the best division in baseball in 2007. It’s the only division that has four teams with the potential to go all the way. The Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins all have the horses to win the long 162-game season race.
Eric likes the Tigers and it’s hard to disagree with him, but my pick is the Twins. The fans in Minnesota will have a lot to cheer about this season, and if players can stay healthy and others step up, this team could be drinking champagne in mid-October. With guys like Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Torii Hunter, the Twins are solid from bench to bullpen and everywhere in between. The big question marks are in the starting rotation—Carlos Silva and Ramon Ortiz will have to come through if this team is to finish atop the division. I have a feeling they will.
Next up is the Indians, who many people think are still a year or two away from getting to the postseason. “Wait ‘til Next Year” has got to be getting old to the fans of the Indians, who are hungry to do it now. And they may just be able to do just that. With up-and-comers like first baseman Ryan Garko and left fielder Jhonnny Peralta and already-there’s like catcher Victor J. Martinez and center fielder Grady Sizemore, the Tribe has all the talent in place to stampede to the top. I totally disagree with Eric when it comes to Cleveland’s starting pitchers—Paul Byrd, Cliff Lee and Jeremy Sowers will make this staff deep and strong, if they can avoid injuries. The Indians will challenge the Twins for the AL Central’s top spot and have a quality shot at the wild card.
The Tigers were the surprise of 2006, going all the way to the World Series and ruining a lot of writers’ preseason picks. Jim Leyland took a bunch of unseasoned kids and cagey vets and put together a season to remember. With the addition of Gary Sheffield, the Tigers will be better. The only thing is that other teams won’t be surprised to see them playing well the way they were last year. Instead of a few days off, opponents will have to know that playing Detroit will be a test in 2007. I just don’t think they can do it again. Kenny Rogers is old, Justin Verlander could fade late in the season, and Leyland’s magic show will have a tough encore.
The White Sox barely missed going to the playoffs last year, even though they played well most of the season. To get back to the postseason, they will have to get solid play out of guys like Jim Thome, Eric Konerko and new center fielder Darin Erstad. Starting pitcher Javier Vasquez fell off last year, and new addition Gavin Floyd is a big question mark. Overall, the Chisox are a good team. But, it’s going to take greatness to win this division and the Pale Hose just aren’t as good as the rest of the bunch.
By writing anything about the Kansas City Royals, I am wasting my time and putting unnecessary wear and tear on my computer keyboard. They will battle with the Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates for the worst record in the majors all season long. If your greatest hope is Gil Meche, it should be evident that your team stinks. It will be a long summer in Kansas City, but to blame it on the Royals would be unfair.
My pick is the Twins. They just have too much talent for this very talented division. The Indians, Chisox and Tigers will play high-quality baseball, which should make this show worth watching all season long. But, in the end it will be a Minnesota Autumn.
The AL West is one of the toughest divisions to call. Every one of these teams is capable of winning the division, but all of them could play some really terrible baseball as well. With new managers, old retreads, young unprovens and injured rebounders, the AL West is going to be a slugfest of subpar teams. The club that wins this division will have the worst record of any first-place team in baseball in 2007. That’s one prediction I can make with little reservation right out of the gate.
The team that I’m picking to win this division will probably stun Eric, but frankly, Gouldy, I just don’t give a damn. My selection to win the AL West is the Seattle Mariners. Call me crazy, call me out-of-touch, but I just have a feeling that things will finally come together in the Land of Rain & Starbucks. This team is promising because it has balance, experience and no one is expecting them to win. It all starts with one of the best all-around players in baseball, Ichiro Suzuki. He has said that he will bail into the free agent market once the season is over, but right now he’s a Mariner and a great everyday contributor. Adding starting pitchers Miguel Batista and Jeff Weaver to go along with future ace Felix Hernandez will keep opposing runners off-base. J.J. Putz is one of the finest closers in baseball and will only get better. If the underachieving Adrian Beltre can live up to the hype he brought with him from the Dodgers a few years ago, he’ll be complemented by young improving kids like Yuniesky Betancourt, catcher Kenji Johjima and Raul Ibanez. And the end result will be some very moist playoffs in October.
The Texas Rangers have a new manager (Ron Washington) a re-born slugger (Sammy Sosa) and a very questionable closer (Greg Gagne). If any of these three additions can contribute, the boys from the Big State will be competitive. Hank Blalock (.266, 16 HR, 89 RBI) and Mark Texeira (.282, 33 HR, 110 RBI) will need to improve dramatically. Both can knock in runs and will hopefully get better at the plate with the help of highly regarded hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo. A starting pitching staff of Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla will lead a pitching staff of wannabes, has-beens and washouts. One of the keys on the mound will be youngster Brandon McCarthy, who was obtained from the White Sox. The Rangers could gel at some point, but will most likely play like strangers this season.
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim lost two big names when Darin Erstad and Adam Kennedy jumped ship. $50 million for Gary Matthews? It looks like a really desperate move. The Angels were 11th in offense last season and it’s doubtful if they’ll be able to improve that figure with the bats they’re featuring now. The starting pitching staff is all recovering from injuries, including former stopper Bartolo Colon (1-5, 5.11 while ailing). Jared Weaver (11-2, 2.56, but hurt during spring training) and a cast of unusual suspects will try to keep the rest of the league off the bases, but it will be tough over the long haul. The offense will need Orlando Cabrera and OF Garret Anderson to get better quickly if they want to be in the race at all.
The Oakland A’s are soon moving to Fremont, a no-name city ideally suited for this no-name team. New manager Bob Geren is directing a squad that lost two of its clubhouse leaders when Barry Zito and Frank Thomas moved on to greener pastures. General Manager Billy Beane has been winning year after year using mirrors, smoke and a limited payroll, but I believe that his bag of tricks will come up empty in 2007. Mike Piazza has been added for offense, but years of catching have weakened his ability to perform every day. Infielders Bobby Crosby and Eric Chavez will need to play up to their potential, while starting pitchers Rich Harden and Dan Haren will have to complement a very iffy staff that also includes Joe Blanton and Esteban Loaiza. This team has a crew of hard-nosed team players like Jason Kendall, Mark Ellis and Steve Swisher, but everything will have to come together perfectly if this team is to contend. Which I very seriously doubt.
So, yes, I’ve said it, and let the chips fall where they may. It’s going to be Seattle with the rest of this division pretending rather than contending. Ichiro will get his postseason exposure, the Mariners will surprise and rain supreme in the AL West in 2007 and the rest of this questionable bunch will be watching the playoffs on TV.
When it comes to the AL West, it looks like Ed and I got referred to the same soothsayer.
This division could bring us back to our least favorite year of 1994, when the crippling player strike mercifully cut short a season in which all four teams from the West were headed for sub-.500 finishes. A repeat of such an embarrassing scenario won’t be saved by a work stoppage this time; the ink has just dried on a new collective bargaining agreement.
There’s a tendency to believe that the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim—that compound identity still bugs me—is the team to beat, because they have talent, recent history and big bucks in the shadows of the Magic Kingdom. In fact, I was leaning toward the Angels as the division favorite as doors opened to spring training, but since then, there’s been health issues with their two top starting pitchers, Bartolo Colon and Jared Weaver, and now it appears that expensive new Angel Gary Matthews Jr. may have sold his soul for HGH and a career year in Texas. Colon and Weaver’s troubles put a burden on the rotation, but they’re supported by what may be baseball’s best bullpen. Yet if the Angels are to truly reclaim their dominance, they’ll have to liven up an offense that was in absentia beyond superstar Vladimir Guerrero last year.
The Oakland A’s look weaker after losing Barry Zito and Frank Thomas—arguably, the team’s best pitcher and hitter from last year—so there’s an evolving mindset to bet against general manager/magician Billy Beane, as Ed has. That’s a dangerous thing to do. Granted, Mike Piazza is a lightweight replacement for Thomas and the A’s are digging underneath to find a substitute for Zito, but the team is still loaded with a bunch of likeable, eager working-class types that somehow find ways to win. Should Rich Harden and Bobby Crosby manage to stay healthy for a decent amount of time, Beane might last laugh as his team finishes first. At the very least, the A’s will certainly make whoever wins this division sweat.
The Texas Rangers have signed Eric Gagne and Sammy Sosa. Three years ago, that statement would have made the Rangers the team to beat in the West, if not the entire AL. But that was then. This is now. Injuries reduced the once-dominant Gagne to just 15 innings over the past two years. The aging Sosa broke down at such an alarming rate that he sat out all of 2006. Perhaps Gagne can put it all back together, but Sosa will be nothing more than a part-time contributor—if he even makes the roster. Otherwise the Rangers are, as always, much ado about nothing. They bled a lot of free agents (Carlos Lee, Mark DeRosa, Matthews Jr.) from a potent lineup and are stuck with a pitching staff that’s not deep on quality. The Rangers will hit—since moving to the new ballpark in Arlington, they always have—but the summer heat, humidity and mediocrity will likely do them in once again in the Metroplex.
Ed, I’m doubling your pleasure: I’m picking the Seattle Mariners, too. They have a sound, veteran lineup with Ichiro Suzuki, Raul Ibanez, Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson. They’ve added Jose Vidro, who may be past his prime but is hungry for wins after suffering for years with the Expos/Nationals. Jeff Weaver, who rediscovered success late last year in St. Louis, returns to the AL West in a Mariner uniform. Felix Hernandez is a year older (21 on April 8), wiser and likely to improve from his shaky sophomore campaign. J.J. Putz is a bona fide top closer few have heard of outside the Northwest. The Mariners have the West’s best combination of experience and balance, but in order to realize their goal of winning the division as Ed and I expect, they’ll have to play a bit better against the rest of the West. And when I mean a bit better, that means not losing 20 straight divisional games as they did in 2006.
NL: New York Mets (East), St. Louis Cardinals (Central), Los Angeles Dodgers (West), Philadelphia Phillies (Wild Card)
NL Champion: Los Angeles Dodgers
AL: New York Yankees (East), Minnesota Twins (Central), Seattle Mariners (West), Cleveland Indians (Wild Card)
AL Champion: New York Yankees
World Series Champion: New York Yankees
The Yankees will win the ALCS, primarily because they’re stocked with great talent—pitching, defense, depth and quality players at every position. In the National League, it will be much more of a crapshoot. Any of the teams in the playoffs are capable of taking the whole enchirito. I see the Mets and the Dodgers in the NLCS, with Los Angeles winning out with superior pitching and team speed. In the World Series, the Dodgers will be starry-eyed and experience stage fright, while the Yankees will feel like they deserve to be there, which they do. The end result is that the Bronx Bombers will take it in six games. So, the Yankees will get back on the winning track and add yet another championship crown to their pile. It will be a great year for New York. Rudy Giuliani will re-unite with his son and get the nomination, Joe Torre will retire a winner and George Steinbrenner will be so happy he’ll punch himself in an elevator and love it!
NL: Philadelphia Phillies (East), Houston Astros (Central), Los Angeles Dodgers (West), New York Mets (Wild Card)
NL Champion: New York Mets
AL: New York Yankees (East), Detroit Tigers (Central), Seattle Mariners (West), Cleveland Indians (Wild Card)
AL Champion: New York Yankees
World Series Champion: New York Yankees
After lifting the Phillies up on a pedestal as the conqueror of the NL East, I’m going with the division’s runner-up—the Mets—to win the NL pennant. I know what you’re thinking: Huh!? Do the math. Of the last ten NL pennant winners, only two have had the regular season’s best record—and five have been wild card entrants. The Mets will seek, and earn, revenge for last year’s NLCS loss because, by October, they will have caught up from a slow start due to injury, suspension, inexperience, et al, and be the better team at the end. In the AL, the Yankees have to find a way to wake up and stop being underachievers in the postseason. (Memo to Joe Torre: Batting Alex Rodriguez eighth is not that wake-up call.) They have the strength, yet they just need passion and hunger. With a slightly retooled and streamlined roster, the Yankees may possess that urge. It won’t be easy, given the surplus of quality competition in the AL. But again, all things being equal, I have to go with the Yankees. Not just in the AL, but in the World Series as well.