Posted November 18, 2007

NL EAST

How they finished (first-to-last):  Philadelphia, New York, Atlanta, Washington, Florida

Eric had picked: Philadelphia, New York, Atlanta, Florida, Washington

Ed had picked: New York, Philadelphia, Florida, Atlanta, Washington

Eric’s postmortem: Well, I had this nailed down, but in a skewed, backward sort of way. I expected the Philadelphia Phillies to start strong, fade late, hold on to win the division and then bow in the playoffs to the New York Mets, who I predicted would rise late after an injury-riddled start and grab the NL pennant as a wild card. Instead, the opposite took place—in the regular season, at least; the Phillies tripped out of the gate while the Mets breezed through much of the year in first place—until that final, disastrous week in which New York not only lost the divisional title but an entry into the playoffs. Pity that poor, crying kid Met fan plastered in the New York newspapers after Tom Glavine’s collapse on the season’s final day.

Perhaps the biggest surprise in this division was that the young, badly inexperienced Washington Nationals didn’t get steamrolled. Rookie manager Manny Acta took an absolutely green rotation and had the Nats—after playing atrociously as predicted to start—looking quite competitive at season’s end, good enough to escape the divisional cellar. The occupation at the bottom belonged to the Florida Marlins, who didn’t miss former manager Joe Girardi as much as they did a starting rotation that went AWOL.

Ed’s postmortem: Without a major choke job like baseball has never seen, I had this division pretty well pegged. The Mets disappeared in a Houdini-like fashion, when David Wright couldn’t do anything right and a lot of the Metros’ young players displayed their immaturity. Philly came out late and rode Jimmy Rollins’ speedy feet and clutch bat to take the East in an impressive manner. If Rollins does not win the NL MVP, it will be a travesty, because without him Philadelphia wouldn’t have come close. Atlanta didn’t have the pitching, which I predicted. Florida and Washington showed flashes of brilliance, but didn’t have enough horses to go the distance.

NL CENTRAL

How they finished (first-to-last):  Chicago, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Houston, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh

Eric had picked: Houston, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Chicago, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh

Ed had picked: St. Louis, Chicago, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Houston, Pittsburgh

Eric’s postmortem: I was right about one thing: No one in this six-team division came off as a dominant force. But I was all wrong about my tip for the top. I was seduced by the Houston Astros after signing on Carlos Lee and trading for former Colorado pitcher Jason Jennings in a move which, I thought, would create a nice 1-2 pitching duo along with Roy Oswalt. Lee produced, but little others in an Astro uniform did—and Jennings was a complete bust, and if he wasn’t pitching horrendously, he was sitting on the disabled list.

I sensed that the Milwaukee Brewers were primed to make a run, and they did. I didn’t sense the late-season rise of the Chicago Cubs, who fed off of manager Lou Piniella’s tantrums and rallied to take a divisional title no other team seemed to want. I figured the St. Louis rotation would doom the Cardinals’ chances to repeat as World Series champions, and after they lost ace Chris Carpenter after just one start, there was no hope for the Cards. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh performed perfectly to my script: Erratic at best, hopeless at worst.

Ed’s postmortem: Take the Cards off the top and I had this division pretty well-picked. The Cubs won it only because their young pitching prevailed and the Brewers folded like a cheese omelet. St. Louis had a lot of drama to deal with (a death and a DUI) and when Chris Carpenter went down and Albert Pujols didn’t show up, they were barbecued chicken. Houston never put it together when Lance Berkman had a sub-par year and the pitching never materialized, and the Reds made a run that was a little too late.

NL WEST

How they finished (first-to-last):  Arizona, Colorado, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco

Eric had picked: Los Angeles, Arizona, San Diego, San Francisco, Colorado

Ed had picked: Los Angeles, San Diego, Arizona, San Francisco, Colorado

Eric’s postmortem: Besides my delusions of grandeur in picking the Astros to win a divisional title, my biggest preseason miss—and I’m sure I wasn’t alone on this one—goes to my picking the Colorado Rockies to finish last in the NL West. Despite the presence of some good young talent, the Rockies looked like a team ready to unravel in the spring when they couldn’t unload Todd Helton to Boston (now there’s an irony), a non-move which reportedly left Helton unhappy. But when you win 20 of 21 games into October, you have a tendency to forget bad thoughts. God bless the Rockies, they took advantage of an incredibly weak National League and made fools out of the prognosticators, this one in particular.

Otherwise, I wasn’t too far off on my West picks. The Arizona Diamondbacks had that look of promise that I didn’t ignore, though their overachievement caught me a little by surprise. San Diego was good enough to just miss getting into the playoffs. The Los Angeles Dodgers played well enough to take the division, but the big letdown came from the clubhouse, where Jeff Kent’s cancer prevailed over the bonding cure that was supposed to be administered by Luis Gonzalez. The San Francisco Giants were everything I thought they would be: Witnesses to Barry Bonds’ home run record and 90-plus losses.

Ed’s postmortem: Who saw Colorado coming? No one could have known that everything would come together the way it did in the NL West. The Rockies played well, no doubt, but what really got them into the postseason was the collapse of the Dodgers and the Padres. San Diego was one strike away from clinching and then rolled over, big time. The fact that the Padres’ all-time leading closer couldn’t get three outs to win the playoff game was a travesty. When the Dodgers lost two of their starting pitchers (Jason Schmidt and Randy Wolf), they were finished. Nomar Garciaparra was inconsistent and Jeff Kent couldn’t rally the Bums’ younger studs (Matt Kemp and James Loney) around him. The D-Backs had the pitching and some really high-energy young kids (Eric Byrnes and Orlando Hudson), but in the end I think they just ran out of gas. The less said about the Giants, the better.

AL EAST

Who they finished (first-to-last):  Boston, New York, Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa Bay

Eric had picked: New York, Boston, Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa Bay

Ed had picked: New York, Boston, Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa Bay

Eric’s postmortem: I took the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox in part because I expected a solid Yankee rotation to tough it out over an unsettled, potentially brittle Red Sox rotation. Wrong. Injuries and ineffectiveness among the starting pitchers seriously handicapped the Yankees’ chances in the Spring while, in Boston, Josh Beckett held together to win 20 games, Daisuke Matzusaka was close enough to be something of a real deal and Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball was effective enough to earn him 17 wins. All this meant the proper return to the bullpen of Jonathon Papelbon, who strangely began Spring Training as a projected starter.

The rest of the AL East was too easy to predict. Toronto was stuck in neutral trying to make a dent in the Yankee-Red Sox monopoly at the top; Baltimore again had Tampa Bay to thank for looking next-to-awful, and the Devil Rays were awful, despite some signs of things to come from a young, potent hitting lineup.

Ed’s postmortem: I thought the Red Sox would have problems with their pitching, but Dice-K, Beckett and Curt Schilling stepped up, while Papelbon was lights out from the pen all season and never faltered. I also didn’t anticipate that Kevin Youklis and Manny Ramirez would play as well as they did. I picked the Yankees to win the division, but their pitching faltered. Alex Rodriguez played well all season and had a record year, but the rest of the Bombers didn’t come through. The rest of the division never put anything substantial together and ended up essentially watching from the bench.

AL CENTRAL

Who they finished (first-to-last):  Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota, Chicago, Kansas City

Eric had picked: Detroit, Cleveland, Minnesota, Chicago, Kansas City

Ed had picked: Minnesota, Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago, Kansas City

Eric’s postmortem: I said in my preseason preview that it “took me a great deal of discipline to keep from giving the Cleveland Indians this division.” I wish I had trusted my initial instincts a bit more. Hindsight is 20-20, no doubt, but had I known that Fausto Carmona would go from a bust as closer and 1-10 to serious Cy Young Award candidate in one year’s time, willpower wouldn’t have been much of an issue.

So I leaned on Detroit, who might have topped the Tribe had their bullpen not depreciated. Minnesota was a non-player as expected, the Chicago White Sox heeded my brain waves and sunk further down from their one-time championship status, and the Kansas City Royals, despite some improvement, proved on cue that this division continued to be too darn tough on them.

Ed’s postmortem: As far as I am concerned, the Twins were the biggest disappointment in all of MLB last season. There is no reason (except for maybe a few injuries) that this young, talented squad shouldn’t have run the table in the AL Central. I did like Cleveland, and I was happy to see them do well, even if they choked big time to the Red Sox in the playoffs. Give them a little more experience in big games and they will excel. I predict at least one World Series appearance and possibly a world championship for the Indians within the next few years. As for the rest of the bunch: Detroit had a shot, but couldn’t get any relief pitching and the White Sox were terrible, the worst team in baseball during some stretches. 

AL WEST

Who they finished (first-to-last):  Los Angeles of Anaheim, Seattle, Oakland, Texas

Eric had picked: Seattle, Los Angeles of Anaheim, Oakland, Texas

Ed had picked: Seattle, Los Angeles of Anaheim, Oakland, Texas

Eric’s postmortem: Along with Ed, I went out on a proverbial limb and offered up the Seattle Mariners as the AL West champs. And for a while there, it appeared we’d both be right. But manager Mike Hargrove made a bizarre midseason exit while the first-place M’s were in the midst of a long winning streak, and after some hanging on, the team collapsed under its own weight at season’s end.

So the West went to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, which looked in the spring to have the pitching but not quite the hitting to reach the playoffs. But that was before second-half splurges by old not-so-reliables Chone Figgins and Garret Anderson propelled the Angel offense. I knew the Oakland A’s wouldn’t repeat as divisional champs, but I expected a bit more fight on the field (besides the one that nearly took place off the field between Milton Bradley and Billy Beane). The Texas Rangers were the Texas Rangers, although I tip my cap to Sammy Sosa’s better-than-anticipated comeback at the plate.

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